These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon.
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